Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were "quirky," given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a minimum, for a more accurate assessment.
Finding no such research available, I undertook what is, I believe, the first such analysis of the cumulative data from 17 current polls with a subset of Black voters, which revealed a striking, if not historical shift in Black voting preferences toward the Republican Party, and particularly to Donald Trump.
Collated were notable polls from reputable sources, were included in the Real Clear Politics and 538 aggregates, such as Suffolk, Siena/NYT, BigData, Fox, I&ITIPP, CBS, Emerson, and Rasmussen.
The aggregate of all 17 polls showed that 21.9% of black voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, with many individual polls showing Trump polling above 20%; for example, ActiVote had 34.4% of the black vote going to Trump.
The Trump preference range of individual polls varied from Blacks Yahoo News at 7% to HarrisX at 38%, demonstrating the importance of aggregation for a more comprehensive understanding.
Even if on election day it drifts back, I very much doubt it would drift back to the 12% Trump received in 2020. Even, say, 16% + stay-at-homes in the right cities would be a huge game changer.
Pollsters, somewhat bewilderingly, struggle with their own results. The highly respected I&I/TIPP poll found Blacks Trump 23% (up 4 from previous) "Concern for Democrats is Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election. Add weakening support among Asian voters, Biden could be in big trouble.”
The Times/Siena poll found that black support for Trump was at 22%.
An NBC poll put Trump’s black support at 20%.
Based on these historic polling numbers, aggregated for the first time, you can expect a combination of Blacks: 3rd/4th party/stay-at-homes and direct switch to Trump equal to a minimum of a direct 15% or plus vote for him.
GenForward, which is a Black/Hispanic specific pollster, has Trump at 17%, which number could be decisive. Karl Rove noted further from GenForward the possibility of Black voters choosing third-party options, (Cornel West if he gets on ballots) or abstaining from voting, indicating a potential shift away from traditional Democratic support "Black voters might choose a third-party option or-one else” in a Nov. 30 GenForward survey -- or not vote, an inclination that was 10% higher among blacks than whites in the same poll. Suffolk similarly “[Trump] has closed the deficit because third-party voters come off of Biden’s support among Blacks.”
Real Clear Politics suggests the potential for Trump to double his 2020 total, with a growing percentage of Black adults indicating they may not vote at all.
The potential electoral impact is clear. The concentration of Black voters in pivotal states urban areas like Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Detroit switching to Trump by 17% could significantly impact the election outcome. These polls are Biden/Trump head-to-head, the inclusion of Cornel West if he gets on the ballot is a further challenge to Biden.
The political MSM is now starting to recognize or can’t hide any longer, that the Dems have a problem. Mainstream media outlets are beginning to acknowledge the shifting landscape, as with Vox “Dems have moved from ridiculing the notion that Blacks/Hispanics are shifting to the GOP, to now openly acknowledging it and struggling for a coherent response”
Thomas Edsall of the NY Times describes the situation as "grim," highlighting higher approval ratings for Trump among the Democratic base of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, unmarried, and college women. This is well understood by the Democratic leaders. Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina is “Very Concerned” about the Black vote,” prompting efforts to shore up their backing by sending him into Black areas.
The historic shift in Black voting preferences, as indicated by aggregated polling data, suggests a potential paradigm shift with far-reaching consequences for the Democratic Party. High-profile Black voices, combined with these polling numbers, indicate a notable trend that, if confirmed at the ballot box, could reshape the political landscape. The upcoming election may witness a significant increase in Black support for Trump, with potential repercussions for Democratic electoral strategies.
This has not come out of the blue. I noted indications of shifts among Black men in 2016 and 2020. Change usually does not come in a rush unless massive forces like the Great Depression, which shifted Black vote near en masse from GOP to Democrat. But the shift from John McCain 4% to Donald Trump 12% -- and now polling at 21% -- shows which way the wind is blowing, and if confirmed at the ballot box a new paradigm will be in place.
Image: Library of Congress