If the media aren’t calling Trump a dictator and saying he’s running ICE like a Nazi, or warning about disastrous climate change, they’re fearmongering about the economy. After all, an election is always coming up, so it’s always time to influence the public—not inform—to lower his poll numbers. From AP via Yahoo Finance:
It’s Trump’s economy now. The latest financial numbers offer some warning signs
Job gains are dwindling. Inflation is ticking upward. Growth has slowed compared with last year.
Remember, these are the same journalists who told us how great Biden and Kamala’s policies were as the purchasing power of everyone, but especially the poor and middle classes, was destroyed.
Sadly, people posing as journalists never do much research, so I will do it for them, with simple internet searches.
As for prices going up. That is hard to find. In this article I will focus on price. In another article, I will focus on economic growth.
The GDP deflator in the first quarter of 2025 was 3.7%, and in the second quarter was 2%. Those are government numbers. 2% is the Fed’s goal, so why hasn’t the Fed lowered rates yet? The overnight rate should be no higher than 1% over inflation, yet today it is over 2.25% higher.
The year-over-year change in import prices from June 2023 to June 2024 was plus 1.6%, and the year-over-year change from 2024 to June 2025 (3 months after the tariffs) was down .2%. So far, the tariffs haven’t raised prices, so why are we told they did?
Incidentally, the gross margin of companies in the S & P also didn’t fall. In the 4th quarter of 2024 it was 45.38%, and in the second quarter of 2025 it was essentially the same at 45.37%, so companies don’t seem to be pressured on margins and so far, consumers haven’t seen many overall problems.
If we want to see a great correlation between inflation and some product, we should look at energy costs, because they affect everything. Crude oil is used in over 6,000 products, so as crude oil goes down, it takes inflationary pressure off so many things we use in everyday life to improve our quality and length of life.
Look at the price of crude oil for the last 16 years:
January 2009, when Obama took office: $41.68.
December 2016, the last month of Obama: $53.72 (after eight years of Obama, it was up almost 30%).
February 2020, Trump’s last year of his first term and just before Covid: $44.76 (it was down almost 20% in essentially three years).
November 2020, just before the election: $37.14.
One year later under Biden, November 2021: $81.27.
When the president seeks to destroy oil, coal, and natural gas, the prices soared worldwide. The price was up over 100% in one year, and this is before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Somehow, as the price of oil was soaring, Biden was also printing and spending money as fast as he could (inflation), issuing as many costly regulations as he possibly could, and completely dismantling any sense of a border, which led to an influx of millions of people who put inflationary demand on housing, medical care, education, and everything else, Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and other “experts” didn’t think inflation was a problem. They called it transitory. Why are they called experts?
18 months into Biden’s term, June 2022: $120.82 (the price of crude was up 200% and inflation went over 9%, a forty-year high). There is a great correlation. Maybe Biden shouldn’t have told Russia that a minor incursion would be alright? Russia and Iran should have sent Biden a thank-you note for having policies that greatly financed wars and terrorism.
Two years into Biden, November 2022: $88.98 (crude was still up 100%), and Biden’s policy to destroy reasonably priced energy remained. Powell had still not complained about Biden’s policies.
Three years into Biden, November 2023: $77.17 (price was still up 100% from pre-Biden).
Almost four years into Biden, November 2024: $70.78 (price was up 75%). Biden was worried about an election so he depleted the oil reserve and wouldn’t sanction Russian oil.
January 2025, just before Trump takes office: $77.88 (up around 100% from when Biden “won” in 2020).
And today, the price of oil is already down to below $65, down close to 20% in six months. This is what happens when a president understands the importance of reasonably priced energy and who understands that our use of natural resources doesn’t control the climate.
This reduction in energy prices clearly helps keep inflationary pressures low, yet Powell hasn’t said a word.
(All oil numbers can be found here.)
The market has lowered the two-year bond rate from around 4.2% at December 31, 2024 to 3.7% today, and the ten-year from around 4.6% to around 4.2% today, while Powell keeps the overnight rate the same. If the traders were expecting higher inflation, they would push the rates higher, not lower.
Besides Trump focusing on making energy more affordable, he is also reducing other regulations, lowering taxes, closing the border, and trying to shrink the bloated government, all of which reduce pressure—yet somehow, Powell doesn’t focus on that.
Summary: The GDP deflator is down to 2% (the Fed’s goal), import prices are down year-over-year, there are fewer regulations, the government is shrinking, market rates on bonds are going down, and energy prices are down.
There is absolutely no reason for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, which is causing them to lose and print money. The high rates are inflationary, punishing the poor and middle classes, and slowing the economy, especially house affordability, while helping the rich—but a Democrat media needs their Republican scapegoat.
Image from Grok.