Early Wednesday morning, I caught some news podcasts from Mexico City to gauge the reaction to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit. His plane landing was covered live. The ride from the airport was live, with newspeople pointing out that the second most important man in the U.S. was in town. It was different from any other arrival. The secretary has Mexicans talking and that's probably a good thing. At least I’ve never seen it before!
According to news reports, the meeting with President Claudia Sheinbaum will be intense, as the AP reports:
In Mexico, Trump has demanded, and so far won, some concessions from Sheinbaum’s government, which is eager to defuse his tariff threats, although she has fiercely defended Mexico’s sovereignty.
Sheinbaum again rejected Trump’s suggestion that she is afraid of confronting Mexico’s cartels, because they have so much power. “We respect a lot the Mexico-United States relationship, President Trump, and no, it’s not true this affirmation that he makes,” she said.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday morning, she said that what her administration planned to agree to with the United States is a “cooperation program about border security and the application of the law within the framework of our (respective) sovereignties.”
We will wait a couple of days to digest the day's events. Both sides will try to be nice but there are issues that divide Mexico and the U.S.
First, the presence of China in Mexico is an economic threat. China wants to enter the North American market through Mexico and that may mean that the trade agreement is dead in the water. The Mexicans understand that, but who is going to stop China south of the border? Also, there are alleged connections between China and fentanyl.
Second, the Mexican government wants to prove that they are not run by cartels. My guess is that Secretary Rubio will share some information on that topic. No one knows for sure whether they are or not. I did speak with a friend in Mexico about the visit yesterday and he said something like this: We hate Trump here but if he can stop "el crimen organizado" (their word for cartels) then that's okay with me. So my friend understands that the violence is crippling social order in Mexico and will tolerate some action to take back the country.
Third, I hear from Mexicans in Texas something very interesting. For a long time, Mexicans living in Texas have driven to Mexico over Christmas. More and more I hear that they are not making the trip anymore. Why? The country's roads are unsafe -- cars get hijacked and you are left on the road with your luggage and family. I hear a lot of that!
Trump has hit a nerve in Mexico and the Mexican public may support him a lot more than you might think. I'm not talking about Marines landing in Vera Cruz but a few drones taking out "narcos" will get a lot of applause.
Let's see what happens. I've never seen such a reaction for a U.S. official arriving in Mexico before.
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Image: AT via Magic Studio