Xi Jinping became the top dog in China in 2012, serving as both general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission, and, by 2013, as China’s president. Under his aegis, China has expanded its reach enormously.
The Belt and Road project, which has seen China take over seaports, airports, and other infrastructure across the world, started under his aegis. Xi was also responsible for hugely expanding the development of artificial islands in the South China Sea, which China used to claim more of that waterway for its own and to serve as military bases. Military spending has also escalated in a straight upward line under Xi’s premiership, according to information gleaned from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the US DOD, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Image created using Grok.
Xi has made China, the single largest country in the world by population, a much more threatening institution.
However, there’s always been more than a whiff of Potemkin Village about China. It’s long-standing, although now-discarded, one-child policy has left it with a serious sex imbalance. While the natural sex ratio at birth is 105 boys for every 100 girls, in China, at the peak of the policy, some provinces were reporting 125 boys to 100 girls. The numbers have leveled out a bit, but they’re still distorted, at about 111 boys to 100 girls. A society with a huge number of surplus men is dangerous because men, untempered by morality and justice, are dangerous.
China’s managed economy has also had problems. Last October, I wrote,
The biggest hint that the Chinese economy was in trouble was the demise of Evergrande, a massive property developer in China. The bankruptcy was huge, with the company’s assets valued at a probably inflated $245 billion and debts of $300 billion. However, Evergrande was just the biggest pop in the Chinese real estate bubble, not the only one.
Across the board, Chinese ventures have been having problems, whether with overvalued assets, the Belt and Road initiative (which was fading even before Israel blew up the Belt and Road port in Yemen), or its demographic implosion, which will leave it as a nation of old men.
The military is also somewhat illusory. In May or June, a nuclear submarine sank in a Chinese shipyard—although, to be fair, we had a disastrous Navy ship fire a few years back, and a New Zealand ship just ran aground and caught fire. These things do happen.
Generally, though, the Chinese military has a competency problem with both men and equipment.
Although China kept producing goods in the first half of 2025, the number of people buying those goods decreased. In addition, companies are laying off employees. In 2024, the biggest solar companies in China laid off almost one-third of their workers. Generally, China is grappling with unemployment and under-employment, which are exceptionally sensitive issues for a country in which the government manages the economy.
While China is still a force to be reckoned with and should never be discounted, all is not well in the world’s largest communist nation. Rod D. Martin, an entrepreneur and anti-communist who is aligned with the Peter Thiel branch of the tech world, thinks that Xi Jinping is facing the end of the line—and that the incoming powers may be less interested in world conquest and more interested in shoring up China’s domestic situation:
2/ For the first time in years, Xi has been absent from key policy meetings — letting Premier Li Qiang take the lead.
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) August 15, 2025
PLA Daily articles now stress “collective leadership” instead of Xi’s one-man rule.
That’s not just semantics — it’s code for internal dissent. pic.twitter.com/VpKBPlTnab
4/ The core problem: Xi grabbed unprecedented power — but failed to deliver.
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) August 15, 2025
???? Sluggish growth since COVID
???? Belt & Road debt traps backfiring
???? Western businesses fleeing
???? “Made in China 2025” flopped
All under Xi’s watch.https://t.co/twK8x1E9sV
6/ The PLA isn’t immune.
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) August 15, 2025
Despite loyalty purges, Xi’s replaced multiple top officers in 2024–25.
Analysts say these aren’t routine — they’re signs of real fractures inside China’s military command. pic.twitter.com/t6YYXB1Mv0
8/ The biggest threat? No succession plan.
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) August 15, 2025
By scrapping term limits and centralizing power, Xi’s created a leadership vacuum.
If he’s suddenly removed — by illness, coup, or political collapse — the CCP could descend into chaos. pic.twitter.com/T0HBtGhsBb
9/ Xi may project strength abroad. But inside China, fault lines are widening.
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) August 15, 2025
History says authoritarian regimes look solid — right until they break.
And when they do, it’s fast.https://t.co/KstSW6QK80
I don’t know if Martin is right, but I’d like to think he is. That’s partly because his analysis tracks my own take on the situation and partly because it would be a good thing if Chinese, with its more than a billion people and its massive nuclear and biochemical stockpile (you’re lying to yourself if you think it doesn’t have biochemical weapons), were less focused on ruling the world and more focused on making life better for its citizens.
Oh, and if anyone can be the straw that breaks Xi’s back and causes China to retreat and retrench, that person is Donald Trump. We dodged a huge Chinese bullet when Kamala lost.