In the Muslim Middle East, plotting revenge is a way of life, so it is not surprising that the Islamic Republic of Iran is seeking to avenge the humiliating defeat inflicted by the United States and Israel this past June. Although Israel is the main focus of Iran’s revenge, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are also targets for the ayatollahs.
With Hezb’allah demobilized as the executive arm of Iran, and Assad’s Syrian territory is no longer available to transport arms to Hezb’allah, the entire Shiite crescent has been disrupted and is now close to elimination. Only the Yemeni (Zaydi Shiite) Houthis still function as a viable proxy. Some Iraqi Shiite militias, loyal to the ayatollahs, might target American and Israeli interests as well.
The Iranians are experts at finding new clients, especially when they can bribe warring factions, as in the case of Sudan, with arms. Sudan’s territory stretches along the Red Sea, and its Port Sudan might provide Iran with a way to disrupt Israel’s navy along that body, thereby endangering the Jewish state’s ability to trade with Asia and Africa. Should that happen, the Red Sea would be locked on both sides, with the Houthis controlling the southeastern shore.
Iran has significantly increased its military and economic involvement in Sudan's ongoing civil war, leading many experts to warn that Khartoum might well be Iran’s next proxy. The recent rapprochement between Sudan’s military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the de facto head of state, with Iran follows an eight-year diplomatic rupture. It is designed to advance Iran's strategic goals in the Red Sea and counter its regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Ironically, Sudan, under al-Burhan, was poised to join the 2020 Abraham Accords that President Donald Trump initiated. Sudan signed the “Abraham Accords Declaration” in January 2021, which normalized relations with Israel, but a full bilateral agreement was delayed by political instability and remains unratified. Although Sudan signed the declaration, the unfolding of the civil war that began in 2023 stalled further progress.
In February 2023 Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, met with al-Burhan and finalized the text for a formal peace agreement. The signing was contingent on the formation of a civilian government in Sudan. As part of the agreement, the U.S. removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, which had blocked Sudan's access to international loans and financial aid. The U.S. then loaned Sudan $1.2 billion.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is exploiting Sudan’s ongoing civil war and instability to expand its influence, raising fears that Tehran could turn the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) into a proxy force. Since late 2023, Iran has been supplying the SAF with military equipment, notably Mohajer-6 drones, strengthening its position in the conflict against the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iran’s military support for the SAF is part of a broader campaign to re-establish a foothold on the Red Sea. Tehran has long coveted access to Sudan’s 530-mile coastline.
The Sudanese government broke off relations with the Islamic Republic in 2016 in support of Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities executed a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric at that time, and, in response, Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Relations with Iran were renewed following the March 2023 restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mediated by the Chinese communist regime.
The war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands of people, with some estimates placing the death toll as high as 150,000, and more than fourteen million have been displaced, according to U.S. envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello. (Note the absence of any protests on U.S. campuses over the butchery in Sudan.)
Israel is clearly concerned about the possibility of any attempt by Iran to make Sudan its new proxy, which would threaten Israel’s national security. Tehran’s influence in the destabilized Sudan would enable Iran to transfer weapons to Hamas and undermine regional stability. The potential for a new “proxy of terror” in Africa is seen as a dangerous escalation of Iran’s strategy to encircle and challenge Israel.
Israel conducted air strikes in Sudan, such as in 2009 and 2012, to prevent the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hamas. A renewed threat would likely lead to similar pre-emptive military actions.
Officials in Israel have argued that simply fighting another Iranian proxy is insufficient. They believe that Israel must directly confront Iran as “the head of the snake,” as it did this past June. A more assertive Iranian move in Sudan could strengthen this line of thinking within the Israeli security establishment.
Iran’s move to exert its influence in Sudan is not just an Israeli problem. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be impacted by Iran’s meddling in Sudan. Both countries would be threathened by an Iranian armed presence across the Red Sea. The U.S. and Arab states share concerns about Iranian destabilization and the security of the Red Sea. And American and European officials have charged that “external actors like Iran are pouring fuel on the fire.”
In response to this growing threat, Israel is expected to increase coordination with regional and international partners. Israel, for its part, must warn al-Burhan of the consequences to his SAF should he cooperate with Iran against Israel.
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