It’s another summer when NOAA and other governmental climate agencies seem to have missed the mark.  In the spring, NOAA predicted that 2025 would be (another) above average year for Atlantic hurricanes — 60% above normal, to be exact.  (When’s the last time they predicted below normal?)  The 2025 prediction is for 13–18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes.  On August 7, despite no landfalls to date, NOAA doubled down on its forecast, sticking by its original prediction.

There’s still plenty of time left for storms to develop, but so far this year, no hurricane has made landfall on America’s Atlantic coast, and at this time, none is imminent. This doesn’t mean that one or more hurricanes will not make landfall before the end of the hurricane season in November.  There is no way to know, though NOAA bases its predictions on the warmth of the sea water and other factors, and NOAA’s advice for preparedness is sound: “Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”  That would be good advice for any hurricane season or for any other kind of hazard.         

I often wonder whether the climate forecasters are biased, not so much for political as for self-interested reasons.  After all, climatologists have a stake in the number and magnitude of extreme climate events.  Evidence of a changing climate, with spectacular storms and large-scale destruction, increases their funding and prestige.  When a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane makes landfall, they can say, “I told you so,” even though they’ve been telling us so every year for decades.

There wouldn’t be much use for climate forecasters if the weather were “about the same as it always is,” but in fact, that’s the way the weather is, always.

The deadliest American hurricane occurred in 1900.  The Great Galveston storm of that year claimed 8,000 lives and caused massive destruction in and around Galveston Island.  Those who are predicting ever greater storm damage as a result of global warming seem not to have considered that the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history occurred 125 years ago, long before CO2 was at its current level.

The fact is that there have always been storms — many of them worse than anything in the past few decades.  Hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, floods.  Severe storms date back to long before humans were around to record them.  And, in a sense, they have always been “the same.”  No need for NOAA to tell us that there will be “some” hurricanes this year, “some” of them major storms.  What’s different is the hysterical response of the media and the public to weather events.

Media also have a vested interest in seeing destructive storms take place.  As a storm builds, it can be tracked, and viewership increases.  Jim Cantore can be sent out on location to hang from light poles, and the major networks can send their reporters to stand knee-deep in the surge or get pummeled as the winds pick up and they are forced indoors.  It makes for good copy, but it’s also true that 90% of those in the mainstream media are liberals, and it often seems as though they are hoping for confirmation of global warming, even if lives are lost.

It’s also easy for the general public to get sucked into extreme storm coverage.  With round-the-clock coverage and an hysterical tone of presentation, events like Hurricane Helene in 2020 and the Kerrville flooding of this year can mesmerize some viewers.  The public response to these events is often highly emotional, and it’s a short step from hysteria to poor political judgment.  There are too many who believe, along with AOC, that the world could end by 2030 if we don’t shut down everything.  The fact is that the world will go on and be just fine, with the same number of storms and same damage as in the past.

What’s new, in a positive vein, is that better warning systems exist, and one can prepare for dangerous storms.  I’ve outlived many tropical storms here in Florida and before that when I lived in Japan.  My advice is to stay inside and away from windows — and don’t build or buy in a flood zone to begin with.

There are more serious things to worry about than global warming.  Young people need to get a good education, to work hard in their careers and save and invest.  Men and women need to love and respect one another and to live harmoniously in marriage.  Americans of all ages should support conservatives who stand for law and order, national defense, and individual liberty, including freedom from Big Government.  All of those concerns are far bigger than Katrina or Helene.

As for specific hurricane preparations, I’ve taken all the usual steps: I have food and water for a week, flashlights, battery-powered fans for when the AC goes out, and a full tank of gas.  I also have double-paned windows, a tie-down roof, hurricane resistant shingles — and I live outside the normal path of hurricanes in Florida.

Thank you, NOAA, but I didn’t really need your advice to be prepared, or your prediction that hurricanes would be “above normal” this year.  I know that some years will be “above normal” (about half) and that eventually there will be devastating storms, and that one of them could affect me.  But I’m not getting hysterical, not supporting spending on global warming, not giving up the fossil fuels that make life comfortable in Florida and anywhere else.

There will always be severe storms in life, along with every other kind of challenge.  And in the end, we will all pass away.  Conservatives accept these facts, and they go on living joyfully and courageously.  They celebrate and conserve what is good in life, not worrying about all that can go wrong.

Jeffrey Folks is the author of many books and articles on American culture including Heartland of the Imagination (2011).

Image via Pxhere.