President Trump has long claimed there would not have been a war in Ukraine if he had been president.  There are some specifics that suggest he is correct.

During his first term in office, the Trump administration spent approximately $22 billion on something called the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI), which increased American military presence in Europe. A primary portion of the money went to reestablishment of a credible ground presence, especially armored forces that had been completely withdrawn in 2013

When Putin invaded Crimea, no credible NATO ground reaction was possible because there was no U.S. armor in Europe.  Something like a large NATO armored exercise in Poland was not possible.  Allies have tanks, but doing something so provocative to Russia without U.S. participation would not happen. 

Much is made of Biden’s weakness.  But Putin bases his decisions more on capabilities than intentions.  If the capabilities aren’t there, he could care less about your intentions. Our lack of ground capabilities meant he had nothing to worry about with the invasion of Crimea.

In the case of Ukraine, the capabilities existed, Biden just didn’t use them.  The Trump administration’s investment in EDI left the Biden administration with substantial deterrent capabilities.  There was a continuous rotational Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT) in Europe, along with a prepositioned ABCT, which troops flown in from the U.S. could fall in on.  Additionally, there was a Division headquarters permanently stationed in Poland.  The old V Corps headquarters had been activated at Fort Knox, Kentucky with a forward element in Europe.

By activating the prepositioned ABCT, holding the current ABCT in place, and deploying the scheduled replacement ABCT, in a week after a decision there could be three ABCTs along with a division headquarters in Europe.  In other words, in a week after the decision, at very little cost to the United States, there would have been an armored division in Europe.  In 2020, NATO started an exercise that deployed two U.S. armored divisions to Europe by ship.  With the division already in place and the V Corps headquarters deploying, that would have put a U.S. heavy corps in Europe.  Covid shut the exercise down.

In the months leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Biden administration suspended lethal aid to Ukraine to “give diplomacy a chance.”  Once it was too late, the administration deployed the ready brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division, which got a lot of publicity as a deterrent to attacking NATO. Less notice was given to establishing an American armored division as described above, made possible by the Trump administration’s commitment to EDI.  This helped for deterrence against an attack on NATO, but came far too late to deter the attack on Ukraine.  Instead of giving diplomacy a chance, it would have far better deterrence to continue lethal aid and, in the fall of 2021, employ the Trump-created EDI capabilities to have an armored division in place. Furthermore, we could have redone the Covid-cancelled exercise.  Putin would have had to take into account in his risk-reward calculation an American heavy corps in Europe.

Would he have been deterred?  Don’t know.  But suspending lethal aid and doing nothing other than saying “don’t” clearly had no chance of deterrence—and wasted the $22 billion of effective deterrence built by Trump.

Image: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, unaltered.