All this talk about redrawing congressional districts overlooks the big picture. In other words, the census will end up doing in 2030 what some GOP state legislatures are trying to do before 2026. This is from Tom Rogers:
Much has been written about the various attempts to create more Republican House districts through extreme gerrymandering. This column recently discussed a pending Supreme Court case that could strike down the Voting Rights Act’s remedy of creating majority-minority districts and result in the creation of even more Republican House seats.
However, none of these actions affect presidential elections, which are decided in the Electoral College. Electoral College votes reflect the total number of House seats a state has, as determined by the census, conducted every ten years. The next census, which will take place in 2030, will award some states more House seats and take away House seats from others, based on the gains and losses of the population of each state.
So the 2028 presidential election will not be affected by any new census count, but the 2032 presidential election will. Based on a close look at population trends, the upcoming census will not bring good news for the Democrats.
Not bring good news indeed. Getting to 218 in the U.S. House or 270 in The Electoral College is going to be hard for Democrats.
It's the numbers, stupid. Or more specifically, the numbers of moving vans leaving blue zones and going to red states.
The usual suspects will lose congressional seats the next time around. They are California, New York, and Illinois. The same will be gaining seats, such as Texas, Florida, and South Carolina. What's the result of these losses and gains? The losses are blue and the gains are red.
Does anyone in the Democrat Party understand this? Or are they so caught up in Trump Derangement Syndrome that this reality will fly over their heads and punch them on election day?
Are they capable of focusing on more centrist voters who do not necessarily love President Trump but certainly hate having a man showering with their daughters?
Can they see the insanity of relying on green fantasies that sound good but raise electricity rates for Mr. & Mrs. Middle Class trying to make ends meet?
To be fair, there are no guarantees that the GOP can turn this opportunity into a permanent governing coalition. Things can change.
Nevertheless, you have to wonder when the Democrats are going to wake up and figure out that there is no light at the end of this radical tunnel.
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Image: Bom Isopod