The rumors started swirling on Thursday: Xi Jinping, China’s dictator, had a stroke. They’re still rumors at this point, but they got a boost on Friday when President Trump stated that “very strange things are happening in China”—a statement that coincided with his threat to impose a 100% tariff on China because of China’s sudden aggression regarding essential rare earth minerals. All of this comes amid speculation about Xi’s potential overthrow. I have no answers, but I’ll give you the information I have.
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Beginning in mid-August, reports from China suggested that, after 13 years in power, Xi’s control was beginning to slip. While China looks—and is—immensely powerful, it has deep systemic problems, everything from a rapidly shrinking population and too many surplus men thanks to the infamous “one child” policy to the real estate implosion to the decay of shoddily-built Belt and Road projects across the world to unemployment to serious problems with military corruption. In a dictatorship, while you get the glory when things go well, it’s also all on you when they go badly.
On Wednesday, just as Trump and Xi were preparing for a face-to-face meeting, China flexed its muscles over its control of rare-earth minerals. These minerals are absolutely essential for modern technology:
China has tightened export controls on rare earths and related technologies while barring its citizens from participating in unauthorized mining overseas, adding fresh strains to a sector central to its geopolitical leverage.
Foreign entities must now obtain a license from Beijing to export any products containing over 0.1% of domestically-sourced rare earths, or manufactured using China’s extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.
To prevent the “misuse” of rare-earth minerals in the military and other sensitive sectors, companies tied to foreign militaries or placed on export-control or watch lists will be denied permits, the commerce ministry said. Applications for items that could be used in weaponry, terrorism or other military purposes will also be rejected.
The latest move marks a “major upgrade for rare earth export control,” expanding restrictions from only raw materials to intellectual property and technologies, said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. China added several rare earths and related materials to its export control list in April.
(By the way, I believe we have a lot of rare earth minerals in America, but environmental issues keep us from accessing them. Meanwhile, China, which has no concern for the environment, has gone after its own rare earth minerals with vigor, while also gaining control over much of the African mining.)
The question, of course, is whether China really wants to make it so difficult for purchasers to gain access to one of its most profitable commodities. It’s possible that China was setting the table for the upcoming Trump and Xi meeting, which would obviously include trade negotiations.
On Thursday, just one day after news broke about China’s new rare-earth mineral policy, the rumors about Xi’s health began to swirl. These rumors are playing out as the Communist Party prepares for the last quarterly meeting of the year (the “fourth plenum of the 20th Central Committee”), which is scheduled to take place from October 20-23 in Beijing, at which the attendees will discuss “the country’s economic, political and social goals as it grapples with challenges from the United States.”
In a dictatorship, there’s always the risk that, when you show up at one of these party meetings, you will suddenly find yourself facing a coup. Keep that in mind as you contemplate the rumors about Xi’s health. This is the best summary I’ve seen about the stories that began to circulate on Thursday about Xi’s alleged stroke:
What’s Being Claimed: An anonymous "CCP insider" (via exiled former official Du Wen) alleges Xi suffered a sudden, severe stroke in Beijing on October 9, described as "extremely critical" with ongoing emergency treatment at a secure facility (possibly Peking Union Medical College…
— magamanvegas (@magamanvegas) October 11, 2025
What’s Being Claimed: An anonymous "CCP insider" (via exiled former official Du Wen) alleges Xi suffered a sudden, severe stroke in Beijing on October 9, described as "extremely critical" with ongoing emergency treatment at a secure facility (possibly Peking Union Medical College Hospital). Some posts escalate it to a "third" stroke, referencing unproven prior incidents (e.g., a rumored aneurysm in 2022 and a "collapse" at the 2024 plenum). Premier Li Qiang, mid-visit to North Korea, was supposedly ordered back urgently, signaling a leadership crisis just 11 days before the expected 4th Plenum (late October).
Timing and Context: Rumors broke around 7 PM Beijing time (morning US time) on October 9, amplified amid escalating US-China trade tensions (e.g., Trump's tariff threats and China's rare earth export curbs). Speculation ties it to internal CCP power struggles, with figures like Gen. Zhang Youxia allegedly positioning for influence
Capping off the news about China, on Friday morning (that is, yesterday), Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that “very strange things” are happening in China. His long post explains how bizarre China’s new rare earth policy is, the strange timing of its announcement, and his determination to cancel his upcoming meeting with Xi:
Some very strange things are happening in China! They are becoming very hostile, and sending letters to Countries throughout the World, that they want to impose Export Controls on each and every element of production having to do with Rare Earths, and virtually anything else they can think of, even if it’s not manufactured in China. Nobody has ever seen anything like this but, essentially, it would “clog” the Markets, and make life difficult for virtually every Country in the World, especially for China. We have been contacted by other Countries who are extremely angry at this great Trade hostility, which came out of nowhere. Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a very good one, thereby making this move on Trade an even more surprising one. I have always felt that they’ve been lying in wait, and now, as usual, I have been proven right! There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World “captive,” but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time, starting with the “Magnets” and, other Elements that they have quietly amassed into somewhat of a Monopoly position, a rather sinister and hostile move, to say the least. But the U.S. has Monopoly positions also, much stronger and more far reaching than China’s. I have just not chosen to use them, there was never a reason for me to do so — UNTIL NOW! The letter they sent is many pages long, and details, with great specificity, each and every Element that they want to withhold from other Nations. Things that were routine are no longer routine at all. I have not spoken to President Xi because there was no reason to do so. This was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World. I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so. The Chinese letters were especially inappropriate in that this was the Day that, after three thousand years of bedlam and fighting, there is PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I wonder if that timing was coincidental? Dependent on what China says about the hostile “order” that they have just put out, I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move. For every Element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two. I never thought it would come to this but perhaps, as with all things, the time has come. Ultimately, though potentially painful, it will be a very good thing, in the end, for the U.S.A. One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Six hours later, presumably after getting no response, or, at least, no good response from China, Trump announced his proposed new tariff sanctions:
It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them. This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.
Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.
It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
It’s against this chaotic backdrop that people are trying to figure out whether Xi is really ill. If he is, that destabilizes China, because it’s never good when the one man in charge is down for the count. Alternatively, as some have suggested, given the rumblings against his rule, this is a face-saving way for him to retire from the scene—and safer way, too:
A stroke, real or not, would give Xi a way to exit the leadership without having to admit he lost an internal struggle and give the CCP an opportunity to cover up the turmoil evident most of this year. https://t.co/mGs6ibtm5y
— Gordon G. Chang (@GordonGChang) October 10, 2025
I said “safer,” but that’s only for Xi. At this point, it’s not clear whether a new regime would be better or worse for America and the rest of the West. In fact, we have no idea whether the sudden aggression regarding rare earth minerals is from Xi or from a new leadership, and we also don’t know whether it’s a real policy change or just the opening play in a negotiation.
Clearly, Trump has sized up the situation and decided that, no matter what’s happening in China, leading with aggressive strength is America’s best bet. His instincts in foreign affairs have been pretty good so far, and his tactics, although unorthodox, have been effective. However, he currently seems to be dealing with a more foggy situation than usual. Let’s just hope for the best.