Among the themes of Mark Steyn’s 2006 book America Alone is demography is destiny. The replacement birth rate, the rate necessary to maintain a constant population level, is 2.1 births per woman. According to the CDC, the American birthrate, circa 2024 was 1.6, an all-time low. Japan’s birthrate in 2024 was 1.15, also a new low. The countries with rates of 2.1 and above tend to be in Africa and tend to be Muslim.
Islamists who predict Islamic domination of the world may be right.
In the meantime, we’re beginning to gain new insight into why Democrats are so desperate to keep every illegal they’ve imported in the country and to ensure they’re all counted in the 2030 Census. Unless they somehow stop the flight of citizens from blue states to red, and somehow ensure all illegals are counted, regaining control of the US House of Representatives is highly unlikely:
The real problem for Democrats is that progressive policies are driving population flight, which on current trend could cost their states 10 House seats after 2030.
Migration from blue to red states is one of the great stories of the age. …
Start with the raw numbers. Between 2020 and 2024, California (-1,465,116), New York (-966,209) and Illinois (-418,056) lost the population equivalent of Kansas to other states. Texas (747,730) and Florida (872,722) gained the equivalent of West Virginia. Utah, Idaho, Arizona and North Carolina also experienced a rush of newcomers.
Graphic: Census Bureau Post. Public Domain.
Population flight cost Democratic states several House seats during the last Congressional reapportionment following the 2020 Census, but they lost fewer seats than expected.
*** The Census Bureau in 2022 reported that New York’s population was over-counted by 3.4% while there were under-counts in Florida (3.5%) and Texas (1.9%).
Such inaccuracies may have cost Florida and Texas an additional House seat and given Rhode Island, New York and Minnesota one each they shouldn’t have received.
If current demographic trends continue, illegals aren’t counted and every state is counted honestly—more about that in a moment—Republicans will gain at least ten House seats in 2030. An accurate census is essential, because among other things it determines how many House seats every state is allocated. We now know the 2020 Census was shockingly inaccurate in at least 14 states, and largely to the benefit of Democrats. Interesting how that happens, isn’t it?
As explained below, as a result of these errors, Florida did not receive two additional congressional seats and Texas did not receive one more congressional seat. Meanwhile, two other states, Minnesota and Rhode Island, each retained a congressional seat that they should have lost, and Colorado gained a new seat to which it was rightfully not entitled.
The harms flowing from these mistakes impact more than just congressional representation, which also affects the number of electors from those states since they are calculated by the number of Senators and Representatives in each state.
Because the Treasury and other federal departments will continue to use the original, official Census numbers (and not the new numbers contained in the PES), these errors will affect $1.5 trillion in funding received by states in federal appropriations during the next decade in disbursements that are distributed based on the population of each state.
It’s unlikely American women are going to increase their birth rate beyond replacement by 2030. Democrats obviously hope they can import and keep enough illegals in their states, because many of them do have children beyond the replacement rate. Their problem is Donald Trump is working hard to deport every illegal, and should a Republican replace him in 2028, there’s every indication that trend will continue.
Graphic: X Post
Even worse for Democrats is even illegals are fleeing their states for red states, joining an ever-increasing number of red state Americans. In order for them to keep their citizens, and to import red staters—why are you laughing?—blue state governors will have to repudiate virtually every belief and policy they’ve always held dear. They’ll have to dramatically reduce taxes, regulations, burdensome, unnecessary and unconstitutional laws, do away with nanny statism, reduce the size of government, and embrace energy development to lower energy costs. In other words, they’ll have to transform themselves into red states, and in so doing, admit all the crime, taxes, and lack of freedom they’ve embraced for generations were not inevitable and unsolvable but a conscious, destructive choice.
Good luck with that.
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Mike McDaniel is a USAF veteran, classically trained musician, Japanese and European fencer, life-long athlete, firearm instructor, retired police officer and high school and college English teacher. He is a published author and blogger. His home blog is Stately McDaniel Manor.