For decades, Democrats had a lock on two very important demographics: blacks and the youth vote. Part of the Democrats’ screaming panic and hyperbole in this election cycle is because both of those groups are waking up to the fact that the Democrat party is not serving them well.

In 2016,  per Pew Research’s post-election analysis, 91% of black votes went to Hillary, with only 6% going to Trump.  Meanwhile, Hillary got 58% of votes from 18 to 29-year-olds, while Trump got only 28% of those votes.

By 2020, again per Pew, Biden outdid Hillary with blacks (the George Floyd effect), getting 92% of their votes, but Trump’s share, interestingly, went up to 8%. When it came to the youth vote, there was a big shift toward Trump, with Trump receiving 35% of the youth vote to only 59% for Biden.

Image by AI.

What most scares Democrats is that they’re suddenly losing black voters while the trend away from Democrats continues among the youngest voters. When it comes to the black vote, even the New York Times has noticed:

While President Biden enjoys strong support from Black voters, Donald Trump has chipped away at that crucial Democratic base: He won 12 percent of Black voters in the 2020 election [ed: a statement belied by Pew and Brookings] and did especially well with Black men, winning 19 percent. Some pollsters think Mr. Trump may do even better in November.

The men whom the Times interviewed felt betrayed by the Democrat party (as well they should, for the party has used and abused them), but most were pragmatists: Ultimately, they thrived under Trump and have not done so under Biden. Results talk.

That dynamic does not seem to be confined to a focus group. Instead, the data indicate that it’s affecting overall voter preferences amongst blacks in the 2024 election:

• Despite a significant majority viewing Biden more favorably than Trump, that margin of favorable sentiment has declined from a 55 percentage point advantage in 2022 to a 48 point advantage now.
• Also, while most Black Americans continue to say that Trump is biased against Black people (77%), that number has also come down 10 points from 2020 (87%) while the percent saying Biden is biased has climbed 6 points from 17% in 2020 to 23% now.
• With Biden needing significant support from Black voters, the finding that only 62% currently report that they are absolutely certain to vote is a warning sign compared to the 74% reporting the same in June 2020.

Yikes! (If you’re a Democrat.) In a tight election, small margins can cause big changes in outcomes.

Perhaps the most important thing for Trump voices in the black community is the increasing courage being seen among black Trump supporters. They’re proudly showing up at the RNC convention, and they no longer feel they need to hide who they are:

And who can forget this wonderful moment?

One could say that blacks are coming home to their party...the Republican party, which was birthed out of the abolition movement.

Moreover, it doesn’t help Democrats hold tight to the black community when Biden is saying things like this:

Meanwhile, things aren’t going any better for Democrats with young people. This one chart says it all:

In theory, Democrats had the backs of young people and minorities. In theory, Democrats would transfer wealth their way and cater to their every need and desire. But facts and theories are two different things.

In fact, both blacks and young people can compare and contrast the Trump years to the Biden years, and, in fact, they thrived under Trump and are struggling under Biden. At the end of the day, a small shift in both those important demographics can completely change a nation’s path, just as a small tilt in a man’s head can be the difference between a successful campaign and a nation’s collapse.