By nearly every metric, something has shifted in America.
A springtime surge in optimism is sweeping through households and boardrooms alike, and — for the first time in a generation — a clear majority of Americans say the country is on the right track. The numbers don’t just suggest a change in mood; they mark a potential turning point in public trust, economic perception, and political alignment, all unfolding in the early months of Donald J. Trump’s second term.
This month, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) jumped to 98.0, up a striking 12.3 points from April’s reading of 85.7. This is the largest monthly gain in the index in four years, and far above economists’ consensus forecast of 87.1. The surge follows President Trump’s May 12 announcement of a new trade deal with China, which included a pause on certain tariffs — an act widely seen as a catalyst for renewed economic optimism.
Even more telling is the rise in the Expectations Index, which gauges how consumers feel about the next six months. It leapt from a 13-year low of 55.4 in April to 72.8 in May — a 17.4-point increase that marks the most dramatic month-to-month gain since 2011. According to the Conference Board, this renewed confidence is directly linked to consumer hopes surrounding improved trade conditions and broader policy stability under Trump’s leadership.
The Present Situation Index, which assesses current economic conditions, also saw a solid rise—from 131.1 in April to 135.9 in May — reinforcing the sense that Americans are feeling stronger economic tailwinds in their day-to-day lives.
Perhaps even more impactful for working families is the softening of inflation expectations.
According to the same report, average 12-month inflation expectations declined from 7.0% in April to 6.5% in May, with respondents citing noticeable drops in gas and food prices. While the Conference Board stops short of attributing the decline to a specific policy, the perception of easing price pressures coincides with Trump’s messaging around economic discipline and trade relief.
But consumer sentiment is only part of the story.
On May 27, Rasmussen Reports released a landmark poll that stunned even its own analysts.
For the first time in its history, which reaches back to 2006, a majority of likely U.S. voters — exactly 50% — said they believe the country is on the right track. “Holy crap — it happened!” exclaimed Rasmussen Reports pollster Mark Mitchell, underlining the historic nature of the shift.
This result isn’t a statistical blip. Rasmussen Reports’ four-day rolling average confirms the trend, with 50% of respondents saying the country is headed in the right direction and 45% disagreeing.
Just as notable: President Trump’s job approval hit 52% in the same poll — his highest in recent memory, underscoring a rising tide of support early in his second term.
Of course, the optimism is not universally shared. The same Rasmussen Reports poll shows that while 75% of Republicans feel the country is on the right path, 65% of Democrats disagree. The partisan divide remains sharp, but the overall 50% “right track” milestone reflects that a growing coalition of voters — beyond just the GOP base — are feeling more secure about the future.
These numbers align with broader polling and media analysis. The Washington Examiner noted that Rasmussen Reports’ findings echo reporting in The New York Times, which described a discernible “Trump effect” in shifting public perception of the economy and national direction.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average, while still underwater, now shows 44% of voters saying the country is on the right track — the most favorable reading since May 2021.
All of this paints a picture of a nation adjusting to new leadership with a sense of regained confidence, if not yet full consensus. The turnaround in sentiment is particularly striking when compared to the pre-election mood of late 2024, when inflation, global instability, and domestic uncertainty dominated headlines and voter concerns.
What changed?
Trump’s early second-term strategy appears to be defined by bold gestures aimed at restoring economic stability and national pride. The May 12 tariff pause with China, framed as the beginning of a broader renegotiation strategy, has so far generated tangible positive feedback from the public. Though critics question the long-term impact of the deal, the immediate effect on consumer outlook is indisputable.
It would be a mistake, however, to credit any single policy as the sole driver of this sea change. What the data reflect is less about specific legislation and more about a general perception shift: Americans believe that leadership has returned, that inflation might be beatable, and that the economic horizon is finally clearing after years of turbulence.
This isn’t uncharted territory only in polling terms. It’s an emotional and psychological shift, a quiet moment of relief for millions of Americans who had grown used to crisis, division, and uncertainty. For many, this moment feels like a long-overdue correction — one that reconnects government policy with real-world results.
None of this guarantees lasting success, of course. Public sentiment is a volatile force. Confidence, once gained, can just as easily be lost. But for now, the numbers speak with rare clarity: Americans are beginning to believe again.
And belief, when backed by momentum, can be a powerful thing.
Dr. Joseph Ford Cotto hosts and produces News Sight, speaking the data-driven truth about economic and political issues that impact you. During the 2024 presidential election, he created the Five-Point Forecast, which correctly predicted Trump's national victory and the outcome in all swing states. The author of numerous nonfiction books, Cotto holds a doctorate in business administration and is a Lean Six Sigma Certified Black Belt. During 2014, HLM King Kigeli V of Rwanda bestowed a hereditary knighthood upon him. It was followed by a barony the next year.