The UK Labour Party headed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer is grappling with a real crisis -- its approval ratings have hit a record low of 20%, while its recent by-election loss in Wales once again confirms a heavy decline in popularity even in those parts of the UK that had used to demonstrate complete support for Labour. The reason is their unpopular policy that has led to a disastrous state of affairs in social, economic, and migration spheres. Rising taxes, neglect of healthcare reform, cutting the budget for social expenses, as well as the enormous influx of migrants, came as a nasty surprise for a population that had hoped for at least some kind of involvement in securing their welfare after 14 years of Conservatives’ apathy.
Infighting among Starmer’s party fellows is another factor jeopardizing the credibility of the government. Taking the advantage of the prime minister’s poor ratings, they have triggered a “civil war” over who should succeed Starmer, putting the urgent problems of the UK on the back burner. The emergence of damaging information about the personal life and tax affairs of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner several days ago, who is seen by some people as the next prime minister if Starmer was to fall, is not a mere coincidence. According to MP Alex Burghart, the compromising material on Rayner is likely to have been leaked by her Labour rivals. Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the ruling party, who returned to big-time politics a while ago, didn’t stay on the sidelines either. He launched a new left-wing party, definitely counting on his success in attracting left-wing voters unsatisfied with the prime minister.
Taking into account that the struggle for a still not vacant position of the government’s head gaining momentum, it will be quite hard for Starmer to retain his already unstable position and survive to the next elections maintaining his premiership. The release of the UK’s annual budget in November 2025 will become another challenge for the prime minister as Starmer’s future will depend on the effectiveness of his decisions.
The increased popularity of Nigel Farage and his party “Reform UK,” especially among young adults, is no surprise under these circumstances. Some solutions, proposed by the far-right politician, such as mass deportation of migrants, can be considered to be harsh, but at least they give hope of brighter future to the voters. After 14 years of Conservative apathy and absence of any real changes with Labour, people are determined to bring to power the far-right politician, who offers albeit radical but still possible solutions to internal problems.
Taking into consideration the latest polls, according to which the approval ratings of Reform UK is 35% against 20% for Labour, Starmer’s party fellows should not count on winning by-elections in 2026. Their goose seems to have been cooked and only a miracle can save Labour from a ghastly failure.
Liam Calnan was born and raised in Ireland. A few years ago, he moved to the United States to pursue a degree. He sees the study of international economic and political relations as his main area of research.
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