We’ve got results for Arizona, Georgia, and New Mexico in the latest batch of American Thinker/Rasmussen Reports polls. They show that Georgia is now solidly behind Trump, Arizona supports Trump, and New Mexico remains true blue. As has been the case in poll after poll, all voters are concerned about immigration, the economy, and election integrity, but in true blue states, they can’t quit the status quo.
Regarding the presidential election, Georgia has moved strongly into the Trump camp, giving Trump a six-point lead (51-45%). In Arizona, Trump has a solid two-point lead over Harris (48-46%), even though Republican senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails the Democrat candidate Reuben Gallego by 4 points (48-44%).
In New Mexico, LVs are staying blue, with Harris leading Trump by five points (49-44%). However, New Mexico’s LVs are less enthusiastic for Harris than they are for their Democrat senatorial candidate Martin Heinrich, who has a 9-point lead over Republican Nella Domenici (50-41%).
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Likely voters’ views of the presidential candidates’ competency and “threat to democracy” tracked their voting preferences. In Georgia and Arizona, voters view Trump as more competent than Harris (50-42% in Georgia and 49-44% in Arizona). Meanwhile, in New Mexico, Harris received an unenthusiastic three-point competency lead over Trump (48-45%). The same pattern showed up in the “threat to democracy” category. Georgia voters favored Trump by 9 points, and Arizona voters favored him by 3 points on that metric, while New Mexico voters gave Harris a strong 10-point lead.
On the issues, voters in all three states rank the economy as their top concern (39% in Georgia, 33% in Arizona, and 27% in New Mexico). Their second concern is border security (21% in Georgia, 23% in Arizona, and 18% in New Mexico), with abortion coming up a distant third (11% in Georgia and 16% in both Arizona and New Mexico).
Voters in the three states split on what they think the incoming administration should have as its priority. In Georgia, the top three spots went to rising prices (37%), illegal immigration (28%), and “protecting our democracy” (20%). Meanwhile, voters in Arizona and New Mexico were more concerned about illegal immigration (33% and 29% respectively). Arizonans tied at 22% for rising prices and protecting democracy, while New Mexicans ranked rising prices (27%) before protecting democracy (22%).
In all three states, LVs are unenthusiastic about the status quo. All say that they’re less well off than they were four years ago (56% in Georgia, 55% in Arizona, and 53% in New Mexico). All are also worried about their children, believing they’ll do less well than their parents (51% in Georgia, 52% in Arizona, and 51% in New Mexico). In all three states, voters are roughly split when asked whether children will do better or if they’re just not sure.
Asked to consider legal immigration into the US, both Georgia and Arizona LVs would like to see it decreased or temporarily halted, while New Mexico LVs are more sanguine about the legal immigration status quo. Thus, 34% of Georgia’s LVs want to decrease legal immigration, 25% want to pause it, and only 20% want it left at the same level. In Arizona, 31% of LVs want to decrease it, 24% want to pause it, and 21% like the status quo. However, in New Mexico, while 29% do want to decrease legal immigration, 30% like the status quo, with only 21% desiring a pause. In all three states, only small minorities want more legal immigrants.
Regarding whether the flow of illegal aliens over the southern border constitutes an “invasion,” majorities in all three states agreed that the description is accurate (62% in Georgia, 57% in Arizona, and 52% in New Mexico). In each state, majorities either strongly or somewhat support using the United States military or National Guard to stop the influx of illegal aliens (66% in Georgia, 60% in Arizona, and 55% in New Mexico). In all three states, the greatest number of respondents hold Biden to blame for illegal immigration (28% in Georgia, 30% in Arizona, and 28% in New Mexico).
Voters are extremely concerned about cheating, but in Georgia, they’re ambivalent about electronic voting machines. In all three states, LVs agreed that it’s very or somewhat important to prevent cheating (91% in Georgia, 89% in Arizona, and 93% in New Mexico). Majorities also believe that mail-in voting is very or somewhat likely to increase cheating (61% in Georgia, 51% in Arizona, and 53% in New Mexico). Majorities also think votes should be counted on election day (54% in Georgia, 51% in Arizona, and 54% in New Mexico).
However, while voters tend to agree that electronic voting machines make cheating easier rather than harder (42-30% in Georgia, 40-22% in Arizona, and 38-25% in New Mexico), Georgia voters still prefer voting with machines over paper (52-36%). In both Arizona (63%) and New Mexico (60%), voters favor paper.
In Georgia and New Mexico, significant numbers of people have already voted early and in person (50% in Georgia and 45% in New Mexico). Arizona is the outlier, where 56% claim they have or plan to vote by mail. For all three states, if they haven’t yet voted, in-person voting on election day is the top choice (36% in Georgia, 24% in Arizona, and 39% in New Mexico).
Finally, in each state, pro-choice LVs outnumber pro-life LVs, albeit only by a small margin in Georgia (45-44% in Georgia, 55-36% in Arizona, and 58-35% in New Mexico). When asked when abortions should be allowed, the largest number said through the third month (28% in Georgia, 32% in Arizona, and 27% in New Mexico), with substantial minorities in Arizona and New Mexico wanting abortion without limits (19% and 18% respectively).
You can see more information about these poll results at Rasmussen Reports.