We at American Thinker were so fascinated by the last round of polls we commissioned from Rasmussen Reports, and so heartened by the trends we’ve been seeing from other polling companies that we dove in again. Over the next few days, you’ll see the results from a new set of polls we commissioned from Rasmussen Reports. So far, we’ve got results from Pennsylvania, and they’re good for Trump and offer interesting insights into how voters feel about the issues, the candidates, and the problems facing America.
Rasmussen Reports polled 1,072 Like Voters (“LVs”) in Pennsylvania—459 Democrats, 452 Republicans, and 161 Independents. As always, Rasmussen plays it conservatively in how it looks at the LV numbers, which is smart. However, it’s worth noting that, thanks in no small part to Scott Pressler, Pennsylvania has seen a surge in Republican registrations. Indeed, across America, for the first time since Reagan’s presidency, more Americans identify as Republicans than as Democrats.
Image made using AI and a photo of Independence Hall by xiquinhosilva (CC BY 2.0).
The top-line point to take away from the poll is that Trump now leads Harris by 3 points (50%-47%) in Pennsylvania. That’s a huge shift from the September 25 poll, which had the two candidates tied in Pennsylvania. The momentum favors Trump, and, as Scott Adams says, in a dynamic situation, the momentum can be even more important than the actual numbers. Part of that shift may boil down to one simple metric: Worried voters (more on that below) view Trump as the more competent person (51% to 46% for Harris).
The most enthusiastic Trump voters are men (57% to 44% of women) and those in the age 30-39 and 50-65 demographics (54% and 53% respectively). Intriguingly, LVs who are 18-29 aren’t far behind, at 51%, while the demographic that most strongly supports Kamala is those young people’s parents, those who are 40-49, whose Kamala support comes in at 53%.
While a majority of black voters still back Kamala (66%), what must terrify the Democrats is that 30% of blacks support Trump. Even the New York Times is worried by this trend, which is reflected across America.
Some things haven’t changed from the September 25 poll. Pennsylvania’s LVs are most concerned about the economy (33%), followed by border security (21%) and abortion (17%). However, when asked which issue the incoming president should address first, illegal immigration is in the top spot (31%), with rising prices (27%) and “protecting our democracy” (24%) following behind.
As before, Pennsylvania voters continue to be deeply unhappy with the state of things in America, which is always bad for the incumbent. By a huge margin (75%-20%), they think that the way the federal government does business needs a major change. Fifty-eight percent say they’re not better off than they were four years ago, 55% view their children’s future with gloom, and 53% say that they don’t trust the federal government.
While Pennsylvania’s LVs aren’t too upset with FEMA itself (49% approve of its hurricane work versus 42% who don’t), they’re deeply disturbed by how D.C. is distributing taxpayer money. When asked whether illegal aliens or Americans affected by disasters should get higher funding priority, 85% said that Americans should take priority, while only 7% thought the same for illegal aliens.
When it comes to how our democracy is working, Pennsylvania’s LVs are worried. A full 70% are very or somewhat concerned about election day cheating, with 61% thinking votes should be counted immediately on election day. They also distrust America’s political parties, with 24% saying Democrats are the greatest threat to America, 21% saying Republicans are, and 19% saying China is. Forty-six percent of LVs in Pennsylvania believe we’re heading for a civil war, although 42% aren’t too worried.
As I noted above, Rasmussen Reports, to its credit, polls conservatively without trying to game one party over the other. These aren’t push polls. Instead, they strive for accurate results showing what American voters are thinking.
In this case, I’d say that the results are clear: Despite the media’s best efforts to sugarcoat the Harris-Biden administration and Harris herself, American voters don’t like what’s happening in America. It’s no wonder that growing numbers of Americans believe that Trump can be trusted to make things better.
(You can read more at Rasmussen Reports.)