In the five-way aggregate of all current polls, which includes the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.; the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein; and independent candidate Cornell West, Kennedy’s result peaked (so far) at 16.7% on 11/20/23.  His latest aggregate on 5/25/24 is 10.6%.

West and Stein combined peaked on 11/20/24 at 5.7%  They are now at combined 3.6%.

This represents a decline of  points from the total 3rd- to 5th-party aggregate support from 22.4% to now 14.2% — 8.2 points.  Notwithstanding any short-term lift in support for any of the three candidates, the historical further decline on Election Day can be expected.

Whom has this so far  decline benefited?  There are two ways of looking at it.  On 11/20/23, Trump led Biden in the 5-Way 40.7% to 34.7% — Trump +6.0.  Today it is Trump  41.7%, Biden 39.3% — Trump +2.4, a gain for Biden of 3.6 points between them and 4.6 for Biden directly.

On the other hand, Biden peaked so far at 40.8% on April 19, and he has been steady to slowly declining to today’s 39.3%.  It appears that he has reabsorbed a significant number of Dems who moved to RFK last November, with little if any further shift available for him, and since there is likely little to be gained for him from the left-of-the-Democrat-party candidates West and Stein, Biden may well have peaked at current 5-way poll support.  Also, currently, of the seven battleground states, Trump’s head-to-head lead over Biden increases in the 5-way in all except Michigan, where it decreases slightly.

Given that Biden won the 2020 election by a combined circa 40K votes in three battleground states — Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia — any drift to minor parties puts him at significant risk losing those states at least.

Image: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.  Credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.