President Donald Trump's phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin has hit Europe and Ukraine as an earthquake, even if one that was partly expected.
In a single call, Trump has transformed Putin's position and the war. For three years, Putin has been treated by the U.S. as a pariah—that is now over. Trump has signaled he will welcome him back and even hopes for friendly relations.
The call has understandably been received with delight in Russia. Even before the war, Putin's key goal has been to negotiate directly with the U.S. and over the head of Ukraine. There is now clearly a serious risk he will achieve that.
In Ukraine, there is confusion and concern.
A former senior Ukrainian official told ABC News they do not understand why Trump has given up two major negotiating points before talks have begun—no NATO membership, and territory.
"It's just two gifts straight on the table without any negotiations. If you are an experienced negotiator, like Trump, you don't do that, right?" the official, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issues, said.
The former official added, "Unless you just don't care, you just want to give up everything for a haphazard, patched up peace, which is not going to hold for like 10 minutes."
That is the big fear for Ukrainians—simply that Trump now appears to care more about relations with Russia than Ukraine.
Russian officials are also signaling, they will not stop fighting unless they get what they want. Talks can begin and fighting will continue.
"Make no mistake—Putin is fully prepared for these talks to fail," Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm, and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on X. "Putin will continue to flatter and appease Trump, offering concessions that Trump will portray as a HUGE SUCCESS and a WONDERFUL DEAL. But these concessions—such as a ceasefire—will not deter Russia from its ultimate goal."
That goal, Stanovaya wrote, is still to produce a disarmed Ukraine, subordinated to Moscow.
Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after his call with Putin.
Zelenskyy warned against sidelining Ukraine on Thursday and that Trump should not meet with Putin before him. “We, as a sovereign country, simply will not be able to accept any agreements without us,” he told journalists in Ukraine on Thursday, adding that Europe must also be involved.
"If calls are just calls, I understand, but meetings are our priority. Ukraine, America, and only after those meetings, after working out a plan to stop Putin, would it be fair to talk with the Russians," he said.
Some European leaders echoed this.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it was "regrettable" that "the Trump administration has already made public concessions to Putin before negotiations have even begun."
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur concurred. "We must not hand Russia any advantage before negotiations even begin," Pevkur said in a statement.
It is not yet a disaster for Ukraine. Trump's position has been known for months, and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's announcements Wednesday did not fundamentally change it.
Hegseth told foreign leaders and allies during a Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting that a return to Ukraine's pre-war borders is an "unrealistic objective" in peace talks, as was NATO membership for Ukraine.
"Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering," Hegseth said.
Many in Ukraine already understood that NATO membership and reclaiming all its territory by force were not possible. What Ukrainian officials say is critical are security guarantees that prevent Russia from simply regrouping and attacking again.
If Ukraine continues to receive enough weapons and support from the U.S. and Europe after a ceasefire, that could be sufficient. Its best guarantee will be its own strong military. Trump said Wednesday he would keep supporting Ukraine to stop Putin from "saying he won."
Zelensky on Thursday spoke again of what he has called “Plan B”, if Ukraine were to be barred from NATO. In that case, the country must “build NATO” on its territory, meaning its own military heavily armed with western weapons and backed by European peacekeeping troops.
Hegseth suggested European and non-European troops could police a de-militarized zone in Ukraine, an idea that is being discussed by European leaders. But it would require a huge forced. Zelensky on Thursday said it would need 100,000 troops, something that would almost certainly be too much for European armies. Putin may also not accept it.
The meetings at the Munich Security Conference starting Friday between Vice President JD Vance and Zelensky are now enormously high-stakes. Ukraine needs to be able to establish its minimum requirements.
But what is clear is the call was a major diplomatic victory for Putin. Suddenly, the U.S. is much closer to his side.
ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler contributed to this report.